Straights Market Update

Markets have been through a number of swings in the last few months. These swings have been significant at times, but have allowed for buying opportunities at certain points. 

Cereals

The challenges seen since the autumn of 2023 have resulted in significant challenges for growers across Europe. Even in the South-West, we have seen a large number of cereal crops that have gone flat and will present an issue at harvest.

Increased spring cropping will also put pressure on straw stocks and pricing, with farmers already considering alternatives for the winter of 2024/25.

The wheat market saw significant increases from March through to May. However, since then, markets have subsided and are more closely aligned with prices we saw at the beginning of the year.

Taking cover into and through the winter of 2024 might be advisable at this point, prices are expected to remain largely flat as the pressure of harvest is offset by weather concerns. Global stocks are higher than original estimates, but demand for cereals remain high, which could offset significant decreases.

Proteins

Protein markets have been quite challenging to navigate.

Globally, soya stocks are good, with good yields being reported from South America. Weather was a significant concern in the US until recently, where changing weather patterns have improved crop yield.

The same cannot be said for rape meal, harvest has been challenging with wet weather across the EU and yields have been somewhat average. That being said, prices have reduced slightly in the last two weeks which has created a buying opportunity. We are recommending that clients take cover until the turn of the year at least, with further cover being taken until April in some cases.

Global soya stocks are good, which should present an opportunity to take some cover. However, the change in legislation regarding importing soya into the EU from January 2025 (all soya must be certified as sustainable) has resulted in pricing being unavailable. There are rumours that this legislation will be pushed further into 2025, at which point some soya coverage would be a sensible idea.

A new Labour Government

The change to a Labour government is a big moment for our country, and will likely signify an enduring shift in the approach to rural policy. The Labour party manifesto states that ‘food security is national security’, but we will await to see how this is interpreted in reality!  

Labour have pledged to maintain the Agriculture budget for the current year, and continue with SFI, but anything beyond that we won’t know until the Autumn statement. 

If you haven’t already signed up for SFI, we would suggest doing so now, the current offering is probably the best we are going to get, and funding could easily be scaled back in the Autumn. 

A new face at Kelly Farm Consulting

Many of you will already be aware that Laura Cureton has sadly left the team to pursue a new career in software development.  We are very sorry to be loosing Laura from the team, and from Agriculture, but we wish her all the best with her future endeavours. 

At the start of July, Alfie Rumsey joined us for a 10 month placement from Harper Adams.  Alfie has settled in really well and is already proving to be an invaluable part of the team.  Many of you will meet Alfie on farm visits with the rest of the team over the coming months.