Maize Harvest & Fertiliser Planning

Maize Harvest 2022 is upon us already!

We have been out assessing a number of maize crops following the bank holiday weekend and have found the majority of crops to be ready for harvesting or very close to! Not only have kernels been 1/3 and ¼ milk line but dry matter in the stems have also been surprisingly low given the time of year.

Assessing crops will be crucial this year to avoid crops over-maturing and starch becoming less available, along with high dry matter crops which might suffer a lack of fermentation in the clamp.

For help assessing crops, please get in touch with us!

Fertiliser 2023 – time to buy already?!

As you might be aware, CF industries announced last week they will “temporarily” cease production of ammonia at their Billingham site.

The company anticipates they will be able to fulfil AN orders in the coming months, but this certainly sheds doubt on future production and the fulfilment of future orders. With Natural Gas prices nearly 5 times higher than this point last year, this will not only impact household bills, but also the production of fertiliser, most importantly ammonia.

Whilst there is the option to import urea and liquid AN product, this will likely come at an increased cost to farmers. The availability of imports is also in doubt after a number of EU fertiliser plants are also closing due to the high energy costs mentioned above. It is also likely we will see further plant closures as we progress into winter.

What does this mean for you?

In the short term, these impacts will take time to filter through to the markets and effect availability of product on-farm. However, with variable forage quality and quantity across farms, many will be reliant on increased concentrate usages through this winter with the hope of turning animals out to grass early next spring, resulting in squeezed margins.

However, a disrupted fertiliser supply chain could make life difficult through the 2023 grazing season. The other main consideration is the usage and availability of urea on farms. We noted earlier this year during the period directly after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine when urea was not available, milk production suffered when urea was removed from diets.

We suggest you obtain fertiliser prices for 2023 as soon as possible, if prices are sensible then we would recommend taking some coverage for 2023 already. The same goes for feed grade urea, provided that you are able to store it in a suitable condition, it would be beneficial to begin creating a stockpile of urea to use throughout the winter should availability become an issue.

For advice or to discuss fertiliser requirements, please get in touch!

Charlie Davies 07904 601104 charlie@kellyfarmconsulting.com

Laura Cureton 07399 117257 laura@kellyfarmconsulting.com

Sam Kelly 07777 696080 sam@kellyfarmconsulting.com Office 01454 614624

Feed Market Update

Feed markets have been through a turbulent 6 months, and whilst we have seen markets subside from record highs, there is still cause for concern as we progress through this year’s harvest.

Cereal markets

Looking at wheat and other energies, prices topped out at over £360/T for feed wheat in May this year, with prices this week around £90/T from the highs at £270. Some of these price reductions occurred following the deal between the Ukraine and Russia to allow exports of grain from Ukrainian ports. The trade estimates between 12 and 16 ships have now left Ukraine with over 20million Tonnes of grain left in Ukraine waiting to be exported.

Outside of Ukraine, hot and dry weather across Europe and the US is helping support energy crop pricing. Whilst some of the hot weather will not affect crops to be harvested this year, a lack of moisture could delay autumn drilling and keep prices elevated. As you can see from the below graph from the AHDB, grain markets are down from their highs, but have remained rather stagnant through July and August whilst the market assesses harvest data.

Protein and oil markets In protein markets, prices are sensitive to news. With rapeseed markets reacting to crude oil price changes and soybeans reacting more to weather reports from the US in particular. Longer term, large South American Soybean crops will likely cause a reduction in soya prices, and it is anticipated that rapeseed will follow those trends providing there are no hinderances to growing and harvest across Canada particularly. If you are yet to cover protein for the full winter period, then watching these markets would be advisable as there could be a buying opportunity during the lead-up to the South American harvests. Finally, positive news in the palm oil market, following Indonesia’s decision to remove their palm oil export ban in May, the government have now decided to increase the quantity of exports from the country. Since the 1st of June, palm oil prices are down over 30% and this is translating to the protected fat market (Megalac and similar), where we have seen prices decrease by £300-400/T already. More widely, recessionary fears are also being priced into markets, with exchange rates remaining a factor for UK importers of grain, particularly from America should the pound become weaker. This will remain another watchpoint as we gather UK and European harvest data and the market awaits the outlook from the US world agricultural supply estimates. For advice in understanding markets or for help in booking tonnages for the winter, please don’t hesitate to get in touch!

Charlie Davies 07904 601104 charlie@kellyfarmconsulting.com

Laura Cureton 07399 117257 laura@kellyfarmconsulting.com

Sam Kelly 07777 696080 sam@kellyfarmconsulting.com Office 01454 614624

Check yor forage stocks!

Many of our clients have had a good 1st & 2nd cut, and the quality is generally good. The recent hot weather has sent grass backwards, and the next cut will be a lot lighter than expected. It is important that we still get the cut off before we have any decent amount of rain so that we have some good regrowth for the next cut - if we leave it then we end up with a severe lack of overall forage on most farms. Given this situation, it is important to assess overall forage stocks now and look at options to top up forage stocks if needed. That could be taking some wholecrop (getting plenty late enough for this but could still be ok on Spring crops), or perhaps buying some standing grass or maize as a top up. There have been some good crops of hay made in excellent conditions over the past couple of weeks, so this could be used to plug a gap for early dry cows and youngstock over the winter. Maize crops are certainly variable this year, a good dose of rain would help! Some of these crops have tassled very early so we wont be able to expect bumper yields on these crops. Moist Feeds are jumping in price along with everything else, I understand Brewers Grains are not available now and they could sell what they have 10 times over. Other alternatives like Trafford Gold or AmyPlus are available, but the price tag doesn’t make them very attractive. Whilst these are always an option for topping up forage stocks, its going to be much more cost effective to take forage instead if we can. If you are at all concerned about forage stocks, please contact us as soon as possible to discuss the options in more detail.

Sam Kelly 07777 696080 sam@kellyfarmconsulting.com

Charlie Davies 07904 601104 charlie@kellyfarmconsulting.com

Laura Cureton 07399 117257 laura@kellyfarmconsulting.com

Office 01454 614624